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Rising unemployment a thorn in Modi's side

Groups claim Indian govt deliberately fudging jobless numbers to hide campaign failures, bias against religious minorities
Rising unemployment a thorn in Modi's side

Critics say the government has fallen short of its job-creation promises. Here an unemployed Indian youth sells a self-made soap-bubble-making device to attract tourists in front of the iconic Gateway of India in Mumbai. (Photo by Indranil Mukherjee/AFP)

Published: July 27, 2018 04:19 AM GMT
Updated: July 27, 2018 04:26 AM GMT

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's inability to create jobs as promised four years ago during the run up to the poll that swept his pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power will likely be a thorn in his side next time out, according to a respected political commentator.

Opposition parties are expected to put India's unemployment crisis at the top of their agenda for the 2019 general election, says Saima Qazi, who is based in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru.

"When the BJP came to power, it claimed it would create 10 million jobs every year. Ultimately, however, it has become part of the problem instead of offering any solution," Qazi told ucanews.com.

The government has not adopted any measures to tackle the crisis rattling the job market and the situation remains worrisome as more than 31 million Indians are unemployed, she said.

"The irony is the government hasn't adopted any comprehensive roadmap to tackle this crisis. Such a careless attitude is going to haunt it as the country proceeds toward the poll," she told ucanews.com.

The opposition teamed up in favor of a "no confidence" motion against the government in parliament on July 21, citing the prosecution of minorities and unemployment as the major reasons.

But Modi's government still claimed 325 votes in the 545-seat parliament to retain its advantage.

The government, quoting reports by the International Labour Organization, claims that only 18.3 million Indians were unemployed in 2017, a number it projects will climb to 18.9 million by 2019.

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to remain static at 3.5 percent from 2018-2019, Labor Minister Santosh Gangwar said in March.

However, the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an influential think thank, claims the country has 31 million unemployed and believes the rate increased to 6.6 percent in February, marking a 2.43-percentage-point increase from 4.17 percent in March 2017.

In a bid to pacify its critics one of the government's senior economic advisers, Surjit Bhalla, came up with the detailed report in April claiming an estimated 13 million jobs were newly created last year.

But several independent organizations have disputed this, arguing that the country is experiencing a woeful phase of joblessness.

CMIE chief Mahesh Vyas said the figures put forth by the government run contrary to the facts on the ground.

He said the overall employment situation failed to improve last year.

"There is a problem with the way these figures have been calculated," he said, adding the government is manipulating them to produce misleading results.

Ajay Sharma, an economist based in Mumbai, said Modi is trying to hoodwink public opinion by providing incorrect and conflicting numbers.

He said the government's provident fund department claims seven million jobs were added in 2017 while the Labor Ministry maintains that 10 million new jobs were created. 

"And now government's economic advisor says there were 13 million jobs given to people last year. It reflects how desperate the government is to project misinformation."

The pledges the BJP made ahead of the 2014 poll remain unfulfilled, said Prof. Arun Kumar, a New Delhi-based economist.

"The problem is not really unemployment but underemployment," he said. "You can't claim those working on a construction site were given jobs by the government. Any job that lacks social security isn't really a job to boast of. It is residual employment, the numbers of which are being trumpeted by the government," Kumar added.

Sister Anastasia Gill, a member of the Delhi Minorities Commission, said there are even more people out of work among religious minorities and the government has made little if any effort to end the discrimination that has produced this result.

"This year we have found that Muslims are the least employed [religious] group in the police force, and the government has given no reason for such discrimination," she said.

"Other sectors also do not welcome minority groups."

The Catholic nun said the administration has been concealing information about the number of jobs it has given to minorities.

"We have been writing to different departments to provide us with the related data. Months and years have passed but none are paying any heed to our pleas," Sister Gill said.

According to census figures made public in June, Muslims have the highest ratio of non-working population (informal workers) without a job or social security among all religious groups in India.

Some 116 million Muslims, or 67.42 percent of all Muslims in the country, were listed as non-workers.

The corresponding figures for other religions are slightly lower.

Some 58 percent of India's 27 million Christians are listed as non-workers, while 59 percent of Hindus, 63 percent of Sikhs, 56 percent of Buddhists and 51 percent of all other groups share the same fate.

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