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Beijing juggles with Hong Kong's future

The two main candidates for Chief Executive position are both Catholics
Beijing juggles with Hong Kong's future

A man looks at a banner made by pro-democracy protesters showing a manipulated photo of Chinese President Xi holding a yellow umbrella at a protest site in Hong Kong on Oct. 27, 2014. (Photo by AFP)

Published: January 18, 2017 09:51 AM GMT
Updated: January 18, 2017 02:58 PM GMT

Over the past few years, it had became apparent that the intensified program of crushing dissent by China's Xi Jinping, ever since he stepped into the top job at the ruling Communist Party in November 2012, had been extended to include Hong Kong.

Almost immediately after his elevation to Secretary General of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the key position of a trio of titles he holds (chairman of the Military Commission and president are the other two), Xi announced an anti-corruption campaign.

Dismissed with a certain degree of ho-hummery at first by long time China watchers who have seen such programs announced with much fanfare and then wither away after an initial flurry, Xi's program has, if anything, continued to intensify.

The general consensus among keen observers of the Middle Kingdom (the name the Chinese use for their country) is that it is a two-pronged program. Its first use is to rid the Party of Xi's enemies and help him build a lasting powerbase. The second is to break much of the systematic corruption that Xi and his predecessor Hu Jintao consistently publicly identified as the biggest threat to the Party's continuous rule.

Thousand of cadres at all levels have been detained and jailed, including a raft of very senior officials including former Politburo members. No one, it has been made clear by Xi and his chief lieutenant Wang Qishan who is running the campaign, is safe.

Hand in hand with his internal purge, Xi has moved to exert far tighter controls over problematic critics and other elements outside the Party — dissidents, rights lawyers, other activists and journalists. He has likewise been tightening control of China's universities — the traditional wellspring in all types of societies for dissent as seen during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 that led to the bloody crushing of the country's only substantial protest movement since the CCP took power in 1949.

Meanwhile, new rules have been made to control non-government organizations, particularly those backed by "foreigners."

In 2012, Hong Kong's CY Leung was appointed the chief executive of the Special Administrative Region that was handed back to the mainland in 1997 after 99 eventful years under British rule. It soon became evident that Leung's intentions were to mimic Xi's mainland program in the city that has for decades acted as a place where foreign — and increasingly Chinese banks and dealmakers — operate within the safeguards of the Common Law system bestowed upon Hong Kong by its former British rulers.

Leung was the most obviously pro-Beijing of the three chief executives that have steered Hong Kong since "the handover." His arrival, too, was something of an accident after Henry Tang presumed successor to Donald Tsang, a career bureaucrat and surprisingly, a devout Catholic, had to fall on his sword for that most Hong Kong of misdeeds — extending one's house without proper permission.

From the start, CY Leung was reviled and on his watch the environment in Hong Kong became noticeably more restrictive. There has been clear interference by the Beijing-backed Leung with increased restrictions on the media including near deadly attacks on leading editors and proprietors, blatant interference in Hong Kong's often excellent universities and the outrageous kidnapping of five Hong Kong booksellers — including a Swedish national from his hideaway in an increasingly Beijing-compliant Thailand.

To cap it all off was the eventual move by Hong Kong police to shut down the month long Umbrella/Occupy Central Movement that saw hundreds of thousands of people protesting for free and fair elections.

At the end of last year, Hong Kong's courts barred two democratically elected members of the new Legislature after they deliberately flubbed the loyalty oath, despite their willingness to retake the vow.

For all this time, it seemed that Xi wanted to use Leung to whip Hong Kong into shape just as he was doing on the mainland. After all, Xi had been, in the previous administration under Hu Jintao, the member of the elite Politburo Standing Committee.

For all the world it now seems very like the beginning of the end of Hong Kong's "One Country, Two Systems" — which was meant to be in place until 2047 — was being unilaterally fast tracked. (Britain, under the kowtowing David Cameron administration barely issued a whimper).

But with the sudden decision just before Christmas by Leung to announce that he would not seek a second term in the (joke of) an election process, coming fast upon us in March this year, it seems Beijing decided "not so fast."

Under Leung things have deteriorated so quickly that major global companies were beginning to shift their regional headquarters to more foreigner-friendly Singapore.

Long time expatriate residents began to move forward their retirement plans, selling up or renting, and moving on. Beijing's effective sacking of Leung signaled that things had gone too far, too fast.

But like much in "modern" China — I use inverted commas because the Communist Party regime seems little different front the Imperial regimes from days of yore — there is much smoke and plenty of mirrors.

A strong clue to whether Beijing really wants to right the ship, to wind back the clock somewhat, will be seen in which candidate it backs in the March 26 election, campaigning for which begins after the Chinese New Year holiday on Feb. 14.

The "election" is made by 1,200 of the city's elite, some chosen by a select list of guild-type processional groups, picked internally, some democratically elected lawmakers and direct appointments by Beijing.

At the time of writing, the two main candidates are the Leung administration's number 2 and 3 bureaucrats Chief Secretary Carrie Lam and Finance Secretary John Tsang. Their resignations were approved on Jan. 16.

Both, interestingly are Catholics, Lam is practicing and wears her religion a little too loudly on her sleeve, proclaiming her decision to run was a calling from God.

Tsang is what we would call lapsed and he has spent a deal of time living in the U.S. but has reported to be still harboring doubts about his bid.

The economic challenge in Hong Kong is critical, so Tsang's history as financial secretary could be a good choice. But Beijing may have reservations about Tsang too because of his background in the U.S. and that fact he was private secretary of the last British Governor Chris Patten.

Lam's statement already arouses criticism among Hong Kong people, something Beijing does not want to see. And received wisdom is that if Leung's trajectory were workable, he would be seeking re-election.

So, unless there is other unexpected candidate who emerges ahead of the campaign, Tsang, should he run, would appear to have the edge.  But given Beijing's fondness for machinations, the game is unlikely to be over just yet.

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