HONG KONG (UCAN) -- The bishop of Hong Kong and Church-in-China observers have expressed guarded optimism about progress in Sino-Vatican relations in 2008.

Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun of Hong Kong hopes China and the Vatican would begin discussions soon on the issue, and he wonders why such talks are taking so long to materialize when "the time and conditions are ripe."

UCA News recently asked the cardinal and researchers on the Church in China about the outlook for relations between China and the Holy See this year.

Cardinal Zen expects Pope Benedict XVI's letter of 2007 to mainland Chinese Catholics "would have an impact on the China Church in the long run." But he does not foresee much impact in the near term.

"The situation in the China Church has been bad. It is difficult for mainland Catholics to fully carry out the letter's directives in a short time. This needs more time and prayers, he said."

The 76-year-old prelate added his hope that all mainland Catholics would follow the Church principles highlighted in the letter, which the Vatican released on June 30, 2007. It was the first letter Pope Benedict wrote to Catholics in a particular country after taking office in April 2005.

Cardinal Zen also said he hopes "all mainland bishops who are in communion with the pope" could show their loyalty to the pope in their actions.

Anthony Lam Sui-ki, senior researcher of Hong Kong diocese's Holy Spirit Study Centre, expressed cautious optimism that China-Vatican relations would improve in 2008. However, various factors could hinder progress, he said, such as the Chinese government deciding to "take unnecessary actions to prevent trouble" before and during the Olympic Games scheduled Aug. 8-24 in Beijing.

As the World Youth Day celebration scheduled July 15-20 in Sydney, Australia, draws closer, he also wonders "if the Chinese government would allow mainland Catholic youths to participate" in this international Church event.

Lam believes that since China's President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are serving their final terms in office, they will feel less restricted about setting new policies. These could include speeding up the process of normalizing relations with the Holy See, if they want, he said.

The Catholic layman also noted that this year is the 30th anniversary of China's open-door policy, which "will be a good opportunity" to assess how religious policy has developed since then.

Lam acknowledged that although China has experienced rapid economic and social development over the last three decades, "one sees that religious policy" is as conservative as it was "in the 1950s."

Nonetheless, he pointed out that China and the Vatican have begun informal and closed-door meetings in recent years. He said he hopes such meetings could become gradually more transparent and be conducted between the higher echelons of both parties in 2008.

According to a Dec. 5 report in the South China Morning Post, a daily newspaper in Hong Kong, the Holy See sent a high-ranking delegation to Beijing last November. Quoting "an informed source," the report said the delegation included Vatican Undersecretary for Relations with States Archbishop Pietro Parolin, described as the most senior Vatican official ever to visit China.

Kwun Ping-hung, a Hong Kong-based observer who has conducted research on the Church in China, believes both sides made various concessions in the selection and ordination process of five bishops for the government-approved Church community in 2007.

However, he feels such concessions are not a strong basis for improving China-Vatican relations overall.

In Kwun's view, the pope clearly explained Church principles in his letter. The China Church expert pointed out that although practices in "the current Church system in China" are different from what the pope articulated, "Beijing has not officially and openly criticized the letter."

The fact that both sides maintained dialogue afterward is another positive sign, according to Kwun, who is not a Catholic.

He predicted that "maintaining the present slow progress would probably be the common choice of both sides in the future."

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